Biggest Loser Season 8, Episode 9: Shay & Daniel Go Home in a Surprise Twist!

There was a air of foreboding throughout the entire episode.  Everyone was risk tonight.  For the first time ever, there was a 'red line'.  Whoever had the lowest percentage of weight loss would immediately go home.  Then the 2nd & 3rd lowest would fall below the yellow line and be put up for a vote.  A few twists...one person would win immunity & their weight would not count, and another person would win a 1 pound advantage, perhaps enough to keep their above the yellow line.

Jillian & Bob seemed shocked by the turn of events.  Were they?  Who knows.  They did talk a good game about 'playing with these people's lives'...alluding to the fact that while this is a reality show, it's real life.  Unlike any other reality show, you can't fake it.  You have to do the work to lose the weight...and weight is a HUGE emotional issue, she playing with people's emotions is not looked at fondly.  Jillian pleaded with Bob to try to set someone up to go home, in order to save Shay.  Bob insinuated that it was Amanda....was it?  Who knows. 

Rudy won immunity through a challenge, but there was some sort of alliance that Shay alluded to, that Rudy seemingly broke...he seemed to perceive the conversation differently....not sure how to view it, but Rudy has seemed the most steadfast in this morals/ethics/beliefs throughout this competition, so I believe it was a misunderstanding.  Allen won the 1 lb weight advantage.  Would it matter, yes, more than you'd ever know.

Shay weighed in, and was hoping for a 12 lb loss, she LOST 17 POUNDS!  A huge sigh of relief was uttered on my couch I'm telling you.  She had it in the bag, I was sure.  Well, one by one, players weighed-in and they all brought their A-game.  By the end, had there not been any immunity/extra pound advantage the numbers would have looked like this:

1. Liz          5.5%                            Rudy (immunity)
2. Danny     5.11%                           Liz             5.5
3. Rebecca  4.57%                           Danny       5.11
4. Shay       4.33%                           Rebecca    4.57
5. Allen      3.95%                           Allen         4.35
6. Amanda  2.42%                           Shay         4.33
7. Rudy      2.41%                            Amanda    2.42  
8. Daniel    1.92%                            Daniel      1.92

So, Daniel was always going home, but it could have been Rudy or even Allen (say Rudy didn't know he had immunity, my guess is, he would have worked harder, it only made sense that he didn't kill himself this week, because he'll save a huge number for next week then) vying against Amanda to go home.

Interestingly, they showed a video from Daniel at home....they didn't for Shay.  What does that mean?  I was able to find the video on TBL site...I'm just surprised they didn't show it last night. Also,I stayed up and watched the Jay Leno show after TBL was over, and guess what--both Shay & Daniel were there and they looked AMAZING--absolutely gorgeous.  Shay had on this leopard print dress, with a high belt, she looked so great, I actually thought she weighed under 300 lbs.  She stated that she weighs 320 lbs (a loss of 150lbs+!), but it made me wonder if she actually weighed a bit less and was game-playing just to keep folks guessing.  According to Daniel he stated he's lost 230 lbs total, which should put him in around 224lbs.  Also Daniel has a girlfiend--yeah!  Oh, he also met with with David, his old partner who does not look too good.  He was making a lot of excuses and said he was tired and resting and working and other things were more important right now.  It was very brave of Dave to make this appearance, I hope that Daniel acts as a good influence over him! Shay discussed working out 4 hours/day on workdays, and 6-7 hours/day on the weekends--wow! She also has 6 trainers and is doing several different kinds of workouts including strength training, kick boxing, cardio & the street strider (like a bike meets an eliptical). Way to go Shay!

Next week is make-over week-I can't wait!!!

Here's the link to my handy, dandy, everything but the kitchen sink chart:

Download Biggest loser8 wk9

 

Here's is Daniel's 'where are they now' video:

Here is Shay's 'where are they now' video:

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It was very brave of Dave to make this appearance, I hope that Daniel acts as a good influence over him! Shay discussed working out 4 hours/day on workdays, and 6-7 hours/day on the weekends--wow! She also has 6 trainers and is doing several different kinds of workouts including strength training, kick boxing, cardio & the street strider (like a bike meets an eliptical). Way to go Shay!

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It was very brave of Dave to make this appearance, I hope that Daniel acts as a good influence over him! Shay discussed working out 4 hours/day on workdays, and 6-7 hours/day on the weekends--wow! She also has 6 trainers and is doing several different kinds of workouts including strength training, kick boxing, cardio & the street strider (like a bike meets an eliptical). Way to go Shay!

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Einer Elhauge is guest-blogging over at Volokh, and raising a bunch of interesting questions. One post draws a parallel between ELS and sabermetrics, leading one (clearly Boston-based) wag to ask, "if empirical legal studies are like sabermetrics, who is the legal equivalent of Joe Morgan?"

I'm not touching that one... But, in the spirit of the (baseball) season, I'd offer the following instead. Empirical researchers are taught early on to beware of selection bias -- drawing incorrect inferences from data which are nonrandomly sampled from a population. (An example would be concluding that early humans lived predominantly in caves, on the basis of finding paintings, remains of fire pits, and so forth there; because such artifacts are more likely to survive in caves than elsewhere, the available archaeological data are subject to selection bias). We also learn that there are ways of dealing with such data, including the class of "selection models" first developed by James Heckman.*

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